Tuesday, October 09, 2007

Interesting times ahead in Iraq.

This little spat between the Iraqi government and the US government are a sign of some political changes with major implications for the US. Read here about the Iraqi government putting it's foot down over the Blackwater employees in Iraq.

Now regardless of the facts of the case. I personally have the view that these guys are no different than the US forces in general and blast away at anything when they feel threatened. (Same as I would do in their situation.) So I believe that the Iraqis have a case. They cannot do anything about the soldiers but they can about private contractors. So they are making their views known.

Now imagine if they went and arrested all the Blackwater employees and put them on trial using their mickey mouse laws. Even the innocent ones would be found guilty and the punishment would be death. Not really sure what the charges would be but I'm fairly confident that in Iraq the punishment would be death. How would the US be able to do anything after it said that Saddam's death was an Iraqi decision and carried out according to Iraqi law?

So I think the compensation will be paid, certain employees will be removed back to the US but I'm not convinced that Blackwater itself will stop working there. Still some money to be made and replacing their employees with soldiers would not be good politically. That could lead to the potential for a major dispute between the US and Iraq as the US will undoubtedly want to ensure it's people have immunity.

There will be some adjustments and perhaps Whitewater or something will start up but it is clear that the Iraqis are fed up with the heavy handed attitude of the US. Changes are afoot and I wonder how long it will be before the US is asked to leave. That will be a very interesting time and if timed right in the US could impact on their political scene.

That would not be good.


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