Bag's Rants

Miliband does Poliics.

It seems to me the David Miliband is being sensible when he said preparing to throw his hat into the ring in a leadership contest to “save new Labour". Read here.

It is win win win for him and, despite him being a Labour MP, he has used his few brain cells since the by-election and come up with a plan.

There are four outcomes available here from this;

1) It goes nowhere. There is no support.
Gordo can't afford to do anything to Miliband. He won't want someone going behind his back and making little cuts with all the concerned MPs. Death by a thousand cuts. He is more likely to give him more power in a attempt to appease him and hope to get him back later. He is too vindictive not too.

2) Gordo is ousted but Milibands leadership bid goes nowhere.
However replaces him, unlikely as there is no one out there, will face the same issues as Gordo and have to keep him in the circle of power. So he has shown ambition which will come in handy later when he explains how he was going to fix the Labour party but was prevented by shortsighted MPs voting for someone else.

3) Gordo is ousted and Miliband is in.
He gets to be PM for the next few years. OK he won't get a waxwork at Tussuads but he gets the pension and the kudos that goes with it plus whatever he can milk over the next two years. The UK will put up with another unelected PM after all what can we do? We are unarmed and a bunch of pussies. OK it's changing but slowly and the next two years will have taken place before anyone does anything despite all the ill feeling. After two years we will have forgotten about it.

Now at the next general election Labour will have a PM explaining how it is turning around (Even if it is not), the recession could very well be weakening and he will explain he has more plans to fix it. If they get trounced Miliband will have his pension, his memoirs and a peerage or something at the very least. More than he will get if he sits still while Gordo steers us to disaster. The state of the IQs in the UK could very well have Labour holding on to power with a good salesman at the helm against that useless Cameron. The UKIP and the Libertarian Party are nowhere near ready yet and as for the Lib Dems, don't make me laugh.

However, the last option is;
4) Gordo decides to preempt any leadership bid and dissolves the cabinet and go for an early election. Gordo gets to keep his pension but Miliband won't get his PM one. It's too soon for people to have forgotten the state of the nation so Labour will get trounced. Labour could very well disappear forever.
It's very unlikely but one cannot underestimate our Socialist leader. Stalin trained him well.

So from the odds what has Miliband to lose? He has it all to gain. I think he has done the right thing. Fingers crossed that Gordo decides to preempt him and go for an early election in spite.

posted by Bag @ 3:09 pm